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AJ

Important ones that need to be stated

  • There's an apparent downward trend in LDFs. I'll select a 2 year average to be responsive, but not overly reactive.

Development

Disposal Rates

  • Disposal rates have been trending down, perhaps due to a slowdown in closing claims. I'll select the latest 3 year average to be slightly more responsive but conservative in case the trend doesn't continue.

UW expenses

  • I assume premium is trending at the same rate as fixed expenses, so no need to trend fixed expense ratios.
  • For simplicity without loss of much accuracy, I’ll trend all fixed expenses using average written dates.